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In the countries
with the longest life expectancies, average life span has grown over the past
two centuries at the "absolutely remarkable rate" of about 2.5 years
per decade, three months per year, or six hours per day, according to demographer
James Vaupel of Duke University and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic
Research. Life expectancy in most industrialized countries has increased at
this pace for the past 60 years, although in the United States there was a period
of stagnation, especially for women, in the 1980s and 1990s, he noted.
While the future is uncertain,
"it seems plausible that very long lives may be the probable destiny of
younger people alive today," Vaupel said. "It is possible, if we continue
to make progress in reducing mortality, that most children born since the year
2000 will live to see their 100th birthdays in the 22nd century."
Virtually all of the progress
made in increasing life expectancy is the result of better medical care and
rising living standards, he said. In the future, progress "will be fueled
in part by interventions developed on the basis of deeper understanding of genetics
and the root causes of aging in humans and other species."
Vaupel and other researchers
in the growing field of biodemography are trying to unravel the often intertwined
social and biological factors that contribute to longevity. With support from
the U.S. National Institute on Aging, a group of U.S. and European scientists
met last month at Duke's Population Research Institute to share findings from
their ongoing work. The eventual goal is to identify interventions—public
health policies, medical treatments, behavior advice—that prolong survival
so more people lead longer, healthier lives.
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